If you've seen me in real life, you'll notice I usually get much happier/more excited in January, February, and this year, March. Awards season is something that makes me so glad to be an entertainment lover, because I can share my obsessions without people constantly complaining (people actually watch the Oscars for once!). I decided to post my predictions a la Should Win/Would Win posts. I'll do one for television* and one tomorrow for film. So, let's jump in!
Best Television Series - Drama
Mad Men
Dexter
House
True Blood
Big Love
Will Win: Mad Men
This series, though rather dismal in the acting wins, has managed to garner most every "Best Drama Series" win they're nominated for. It's a cliche answer, but it's a pretty safe lock.
Should Win: Dexter
Yeah, I'm not allowed to watch this (so don't expect me to give a flat out review right here), but going over every review for the fourth season that has been published, it's been lauded much more than the other series have. With such a spectacular finale, it's entirely deserving of the award. Alas, Mad Men's retro 60's feel and "awards bait" is most likely going to win.
Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical
30 Rock
Entourage (Honestly, why is this nominated again? Doesn't everybody, except Mark Wahlberg, hate it now?)
Glee
Modern Family
The Office
Will Win: Glee
It's odd to see an actual musical series in this category, but considering how much buzz, acclaim, and money Glee has garnered, don't be shocked to see Ryan Murphy and the cast up there accepting the award. Though 30 Rock is the usual standby, there have been some surprise Globe winners in recent history. I'm betting on a musical number involving them and Ricky Gervais as well.
Should Win: Modern Family
How can this show not win? There's at least a joke per minute, and in the 12 episodes that have aired, not one of them has been even close to being bad. The cast has amazing timing and chemistry, the characters are well-writen (my personal favorite is Phil, just because of how hard he tries), and the jokes are insanely funny. If the voters would choose something based off of humor and acting alone, Modern Family would definitely win.
Best Actor in a Television Series - Drama
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Hugh Laurie - House
Simon Baker - The Mentalist
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Bill Paxton - Big Love
Will Win: Hugh Laurie or Jon Hamm
I'm calling this one on repeat wins/subject matter on the shows. Jon Hamm won at the ill-fated 2008 Golden Globes, unable to accept his award at the show, and Mad Men is at its peak, so I wouldn't be that shocked to find him winning. Hugh Laurie isn't that much of a shocker either, especially with the 6th season premiere of House. That episode was practically a giant "For Your Consideration" entry.
Should Win: Michael C. Hall
Yeah, there's been some definite Dexter love among the critics, and as far as I can tell it's been well deserved. Hall's acting is superb, but has never been recognized like the other nominees. He's no newbie to the category, but he's one of the few who hasn't won yet. Hugh and Jon both have, for quite great episodes each, but Michael deserves the award just for the absolutely heartbreaking final scene of the season.
Best Actress in a Television Series - Drama
Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer
Glenn Close - Damages
Anna Paquin - True Blood
January Jones - Mad Men
Will Win: Glenn Close
Considering her history of awards (she's won the Golden Globe and the Emmy for her performance on Damages, as well as many others) and the dark subject of the show, she's one of those shoo-ins. I would consider Kyra or January, but Jones isn't as well-known in the eyes of most viewers, as well as Sedgwick's show constantly straddling the edge between drama, dramedy, and comedy. If it's not Close, it's most likely Sedgwick. Paquin doesn't stand that much of a chance, sadly.
Should Win: Julianna Margulies
The only actor in the bunch with a brand new show. Say what you want about her series, but Margulies is a fantastic actress. Her performance as a scorned wife of a politician isn't the stereotypical "stands by her man" or "divorce and book deal!" that has been heard so many times by the media. She gives character to a recent stereotype. I've raved about her before, but she deserves all the acclaim she gets. She's the only series regular in ER's history that ever won an Emmy, as well as a multiple nominee for that show.. Close has won before, so I'm sure it wouldn't be too much of a let down to give it to someone equally deserving.
Best Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Matthew Morrison - Glee
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carell - The Office
Thomas Jane - Hung
David Duchovny - Californication
Will Win: Alec Baldwin or Matthew Morrison
I'm declaring this one a toss up. Alec is another one of those easy to predict winners, but Glee is one of the most buzzed about shows of the season, so that could propel him to the podium rather quickly. It relies on the voters and their taste in comedy. Can a musical series, one that's also insanely popular among teenagers, really break the spell that 30 Rock has over voters? We'll find out tonight.
Should Win: Steve Carell
This is really hard for me, because I still believe the amazing Jim Parsons was snubbed completely. However, when comparing all of the performances, I'm going with Steve Carell. He's always brilliant at playing the oaf that is Michael Scott, but something about his performances this season and the last have an odd heart and poignancy to them. His interactions with Amy Ryan still stand out as some of my favorite Office scenes ever. On a side note, I want him to win just so I can see how Ricky Gervais will react. They have the best banter I've seen on recent awards shows.
Best Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Toni Collette - United States of Tara
Courteney Cox - Cougar Town
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Lea Michele - Glee
Will Win: Lea Michele or Toni Collette
God, I hate predicting comedy categories. Unless you factor 30 Rock in, there's never really a safe bet. But, I'm gonna call this one with these two. Toni won the Emmy last year, which was a major surprise. Her show is written by an Oscar winner, produced by an Oscar winner, and is about multiple personality syndrome. Mental disorders are awards bait (same with Holocaust films, it's a proven formula). Lea has the backing buzz of Glee, so she's a safe bet. Even without the buzz, she does play the obsessive diva pretty well, so it's not an entirely bad win.
Should Win: Courteney Cox
I watch Cougar Town, and what was once a shameful guilty pleasure is now on my DVR schedule every week. Cox always stands out on whatever show she stars in, and she particularly shines without having to carry along the word Friends with her everywhere. This role, similar to that of Monica, gives her great lines to deliver with a stellar supporting cast.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother
Michael Emerson - Lost
Jeremy Piven - Entourage
William Hurt - Damages
John Lithgow - Dexter
Will Win/Should Win : NPH
They need to make up for his lack of Emmy love somehow. He's the brightest spot in that unusually drama series-filled category. If he doesn't win, I could see John Lithgow pulling it off for his turn as the Trinity Killer. As an avid Lost fan, though, I'll be rooting for Michael Emerson all the way. Considering he is the only nomination from the show, I'm hoping he can pull it off. Neil has it in the bag, most likely.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jane Lynch - Glee
Rose Byrne - Damages
Jane Adams - Hung
Janet McTeer - Into the Storm
Chloe Sevigny - Big Love
Will Win/Should Win: Jane Lynch shouldn't even be considered as a non-winner. She's been called a potential awards winner from the first line she ever said on the show. Even if the writing for her character was bad (it most certainly isn't), her delivery is impeccable. And she can do heart-wrenching as well, especially with her character's "Down Syndrome Sister" story line that's soon to continue. If she even has a chance at losing, I'd expect Big Love to get some spotlight here. Chloe and Jane have been constantly singled out on their respective shows.
That's TV categories in a nutshell! Expect movies to go up pretty soon.
*Sorry for the lack of Miniseries/TV Movie nominees, but it's basically a Grey Gardens sweep for those. Or Little Doritt, possibly.
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